Staal Jørpeland 6–1 Bremnes: Result & Stats

Staal Jørpeland

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Bremnes

6/30/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Staal Jørpeland57%

×Draw18%

Bremnes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Staal JørpelandExpected goals in this matchBremnes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.77

Staal Jørpeland

2.69

Bremnes

1.77

Staal Jørpeland creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

2.25

creates per match

1.19

2.35

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland

2.25

Bremnes

1.19

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland

2.35

Bremnes

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Bremnes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw

75%

Staal Jørpeland or Bremnes

82%

Draw or Bremnes

43%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+

37%

Bremnes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals

93%

Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals

74%

Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals

49%

Bremnes 1+ goals

83%

Bremnes 2+ goals

53%

Bremnes 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)

69%

Bremnes (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.25 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.69

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more

57%

level

18%

Bremnes scores more

25%

Staal Jørpeland at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff