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Staaken vs Rostocker FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
9 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
4/27/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 25Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Staaken59%
×Draw18%
Rostocker FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
2.63
Rostocker FC
1.59

Staaken creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
Rostocker FC
1.40

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
Rostocker FC
3.25

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Rostocker FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
78%
Staaken or Rostocker FC
82%
Draw or Rostocker FC
41%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
39%
Rostocker FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
93%
Staaken 2+ goals
73%
Staaken 3+ goals
48%
Rostocker FC 1+ goals
80%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
47%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
73%
Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Staaken scores more
59%
level
18%
Rostocker FC scores more
22%

Staaken at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Staaken 9–0 Rostocker FC

Staaken beat Rostocker FC 9-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Staaken in Berlin.