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Staaken vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
4/30/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 26Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Staaken49%
×Draw23%
Ludwigsfelde28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
1.80
Ludwigsfelde
1.29

Staaken creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
Ludwigsfelde
0.80

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
Ludwigsfelde
1.60

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
72%
Staaken or Ludwigsfelde
77%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
51%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
27%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
83%
Staaken 2+ goals
54%
Staaken 3+ goals
27%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
72%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
37%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
64%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.80 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Staaken scores more
49%
level
23%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
28%

Staaken at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Staaken 2–1 Ludwigsfelde

Staaken beat Ludwigsfelde 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Staaken in Berlin.