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Staaken vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
6/4/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 31Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Staaken44%
×Draw23%
CFC Hertha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
1.81
CFC Hertha
1.54

Staaken creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
67%
Staaken or CFC Hertha
77%
Draw or CFC Hertha
56%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
24%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
84%
Staaken 2+ goals
54%
Staaken 3+ goals
27%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
79%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
45%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
57%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Staaken scores more
44%
level
23%
CFC Hertha scores more
33%

Staaken at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Staaken vs CFC Hertha

Staaken beat CFC Hertha 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Staaken in Berlin.