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Staaken vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
CANC
13:00
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
11/7/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 11Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Staaken54%
×Draw22%
BSC Süd 0524%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
1.98
BSC Süd 05
1.27

Staaken creates 56% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 21 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
76%
Staaken or BSC Süd 05
78%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
46%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
31%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
86%
Staaken 2+ goals
59%
Staaken 3+ goals
31%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
72%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
36%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
69%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Staaken scores more
54%
level
22%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
24%

Staaken at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Staaken vs BSC Süd 05 — Match Preview

Staaken face BSC Süd 05 on November 7, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Staaken host BSC Süd 05 at Sportpark Staaken.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.