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St. Veit / Glan vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Veit / Glan
St. Veit / Glan
FT
1 – 0
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
9/6/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 7Jacques Lemans Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Veit / Glan47%
×Draw23%
St. Jakob Rosental30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Veit / Glan
1.74
St. Jakob Rosental
1.34

St. Veit / Glan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 76 away

creates per match

St. Veit / Glan
1.93
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

St. Veit / Glan
1.17
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

St. Veit / Glan+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Veit / Glan ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. Veit / Glan or draw
70%
St. Veit / Glan or St. Jakob Rosental
77%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
53%

Winning margin

St. Veit / Glan wins by 2+
25%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

St. Veit / Glan 1+ goals
82%
St. Veit / Glan 2+ goals
52%
St. Veit / Glan 3+ goals
25%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
74%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
39%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

St. Veit / Glan (draw refunded)
61%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Veit / Glan at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Veit / Glan attack 1.93 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.74

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + St. Veit / Glan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Veit / Glan scores more
47%
level
23%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
30%

St. Veit / Glan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Veit / Glan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Veit / Glan 1 – 0 St. Jakob Rosental

St. Veit / Glan beat St. Jakob Rosental 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Jacques Lemans Arena in St. Veit an der Glan.