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St. Valentin vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

St. Valentin
St. Valentin
FT
0 – 6
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
10/3/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 9STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Valentin42%
×Draw21%
Zebau Bad Ischl37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Valentin
2.04
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 29 away

creates per match

St. Valentin
1.54
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

St. Valentin
1.69
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw
63%
St. Valentin or Zebau Bad Ischl
79%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
58%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+
23%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals
87%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
60%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
33%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
85%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
57%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)
53%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Valentin scores more
42%
level
21%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
37%

St. Valentin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Valentin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Valentin vs Zebau Bad Ischl

Zebau Bad Ischl beat St. Valentin 6-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at STEYR Arena in St. Valentin.