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St. Valentin vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

St. Valentin
St. Valentin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
3/8/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St. Valentin52%
×Draw23%
Union Rohrbach Berg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Valentin
1.83
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.21

St. Valentin creates 51% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

St. Valentin
1.54
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

St. Valentin
1.69
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw
75%
St. Valentin or Union Rohrbach Berg
77%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
48%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+
29%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals
84%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
54%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
28%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
70%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
34%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)
67%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Valentin scores more
52%
level
23%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
25%

St. Valentin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St. Valentin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Valentin vs Union Rohrbach Berg

Union Rohrbach Berg beat St. Valentin 1-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at STEYR Arena in St. Valentin.