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St. Valentin vs SV Wallern — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

St. Valentin
St. Valentin
CANC
15:00
SV Wallern
SV Wallern
5/13/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

St. Valentin34%
×Draw23%
SV Wallern43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Valentin
1.58
SV Wallern
1.80

SV Wallern creates 14% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 43 away

creates per match

St. Valentin
1.54
SV Wallern
1.91

allows per match

St. Valentin
1.69
SV Wallern
1.63

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par
SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

SV Wallern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw
57%
St. Valentin or SV Wallern
77%
Draw or SV Wallern
66%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+
16%
SV Wallern wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals
79%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
47%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
21%
SV Wallern 1+ goals
83%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
54%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)
44%
SV Wallern (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St. Valentin scores more
34%
level
23%
SV Wallern scores more
43%

SV Wallern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Valentin vs SV Wallern — Match Preview

St. Valentin face SV Wallern on May 13, 2021 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Valentin host SV Wallern at STEYR Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.