St. Valentin 2–1 Grün Weiß Micheldorf

St. Valentin

FT

2 – 1

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

8/25/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

St. Valentin45%

×Draw23%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. ValentinExpected goals in this matchGrün Weiß Micheldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.52

St. Valentin

1.83

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.52

St. Valentin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 89 away

1.54

creates per match

1.36

1.69

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

St. Valentin

1.54

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

1.36

allows per match

St. Valentin

1.69

Grün Weiß Micheldorf

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par

Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw

68%

St. Valentin or Grün Weiß Micheldorf

77%

Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf

55%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+

24%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals

84%

St. Valentin 2+ goals

54%

St. Valentin 3+ goals

28%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals

78%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals

45%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)

58%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. Valentin scores more

45%

level

23%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more

32%

St. Valentin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "St. Valentin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff