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St. Valentin vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

St. Valentin
St. Valentin
FT
2 – 2
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
8/29/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

St. Valentin56%
×Draw20%
Donau Linz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Valentin
2.21
Donau Linz
1.36

St. Valentin creates 62% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

St. Valentin
1.54
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

St. Valentin
1.69
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw
77%
St. Valentin or Donau Linz
80%
Draw or Donau Linz
44%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+
35%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals
89%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
65%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
38%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
74%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
39%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)
71%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.21

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Valentin scores more
56%
level
20%
Donau Linz scores more
23%

St. Valentin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "St. Valentin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: St. Valentin 2–2 Donau Linz

St. Valentin and Donau Linz drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at STEYR Arena in St. Valentin.