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St. Truiden vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charleroi
Charleroi
12/23/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 19Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

St. Truiden46%
×Draw24%
Charleroi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.67
Charleroi
1.31

St. Truiden creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.88
Charleroi
1.25

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.38
Charleroi
1.45

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less
Charleroi+0.06on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
70%
St. Truiden or Charleroi
76%
Draw or Charleroi
54%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
24%
Charleroi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
81%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
50%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
23%
Charleroi 1+ goals
73%
Charleroi 2+ goals
38%
Charleroi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
60%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + Charleroi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Charleroi attack 1.25 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Truiden scores more
46%
level
24%
Charleroi scores more
30%

St. Truiden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs Charleroi

St. Truiden beat Charleroi 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in St.-Trond.