St. Truiden 2–1 Charleroi: Result & Stats

St. Truiden

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Charleroi

F. Boya 70'

S. Kagawa 12'

A. Hosseinzadeh 90+2'

10/15/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 12Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 47+ matches

St. Truiden41%

×Draw25%

Charleroi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. TruidenExpected goals in this matchCharleroi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.38

St. Truiden

1.53

Charleroi

1.38

St. Truiden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 47 away

1.74

creates per match

1.33

1.42

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

St. Truiden

1.74

Charleroi

1.33

allows per match

St. Truiden

1.42

Charleroi

1.32

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

St. Truiden-0.25scores less

Charleroi-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Charleroi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw

66%

St. Truiden or Charleroi

75%

Draw or Charleroi

59%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+

20%

Charleroi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals

78%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

45%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

20%

Charleroi 1+ goals

75%

Charleroi 2+ goals

40%

Charleroi 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

54%

Charleroi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.42 · 49 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.74 + Charleroi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Charleroi attack 1.33 + St. Truiden defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

St. Truiden scores more

41%

level

25%

Charleroi scores more

34%

St. Truiden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Boya

St. Truiden · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

18'

19'

46'

48'

54'

A. Hosseinzadeh← A. Gholizadeh

54'

R. Morioka← D. Marcq

57'

C. Brüls← S. Kagawa

59'

A. Benbouali← K. Nkuba

70'

F. Boya↳ S. Okazaki

71'

F. Kaya← D. Hayashi

74'

M. Wasinski← J. Bager

88'

S. Van Dessel← S. Okazaki

90+2'

A. Hosseinzadeh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St.Charleroi

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots7

4Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

353Total Passes625

262Accurate Passes516

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1