St. Truiden 3–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

St. Truiden

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cercle Brugge

4/12/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Relegation Round - 3Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Truiden44%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. TruidenExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.42

St. Truiden

1.71

Cercle Brugge

1.42

St. Truiden creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

1.45

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

St. Truiden

1.88

Cercle Brugge

1.45

allows per match

St. Truiden

1.38

Cercle Brugge

1.53

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less

Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw

68%

St. Truiden or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

56%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+

23%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals

82%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

51%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

24%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

76%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

41%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

58%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. Truiden scores more

44%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

32%

St. Truiden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff