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St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
C. Brüls 58' (pen)
R. Matondo 75'
E. Utkus 50'
12/11/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 18Stadion Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

St. Truiden42%
×Draw23%
Cercle Brugge35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.68
Cercle Brugge
1.51

St. Truiden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.86
Cercle Brugge
1.53

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.49
Cercle Brugge
1.49

finishing

St. Truiden-0.21scores less
Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
65%
St. Truiden or Cercle Brugge
77%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
58%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
22%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
81%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
50%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
24%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
78%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
44%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
55%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.86 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + St. Truiden defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Truiden scores more
42%
level
23%
Cercle Brugge scores more
35%

St. Truiden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
C. BrülsSt. TruidenSt. Truiden · M
7.9

Match Events

24'
Edgaras Utkus
47'
Robbe Decostere
50'
E. Utkus↳ D. Hotič
58'
C. BrülsPenalty
64'
Álex Millán← O. Deman
64'
Sousa← E. Utkus
70'
R. Reitz← S. De Ridder
73'
Rabbi Matondo
75'
R. Matondo↳ H. Van der Bruggen
80'
Vitinho← R. Decostere
80'
C. Vanhoutte← D. Hotič
81'
L. Cacace← D. Hashioka
90+5'
Jorge Teixeira
90+9'
Liberato CacaceGoal cancelled
90+4'
Rabbi Matondo
90+4'
Rabbi Matondo
90'
Jorge Teixeira← D. Lavalée

Possession

53%St.

Shots

12St.

Pass accuracy

54%St.

Statistics

St.Cercle
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots11
6Corners9
9Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots11
5On Target5
3Off Target5
4Blocked1
5Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
400Total Passes347
252Accurate Passes187
63%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 11, 2021.

Goals: E. Utkus (50'), C. Brüls (58' pen), R. Matondo (75').

St. Truiden controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Stayen in St.-Trond.