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St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
7/28/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 1Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

St. Truiden42%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.68
Cercle Brugge
1.49

St. Truiden creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.85
Cercle Brugge
1.49

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.49
Cercle Brugge
1.51

finishing

St. Truiden-0.25scores less
Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
66%
St. Truiden or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
58%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
22%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
81%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
50%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
24%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
77%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
44%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
55%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.49 · 25 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.51 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.85 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cercle Brugge attack 1.49 + St. Truiden defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Truiden scores more
42%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
34%

St. Truiden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Johanna Ochieng Omolo
47'
Abud Omar
58'
Guevin Tormin
63'
Jonathan Legear← Alexandre De Bruyn
65'
Roman Bezus
73'
Elton Acolatse← Christian Ceballos
80'
Adrien Bongiovanni← Gianni Bruno
83'
Alexis De Sart
90'
Wolke Janssens← Yohan Boli
90'
Yoann Etienne← Abud Omar
90'
Guevin Tormin← Guevin Tormin

Statistics

St.Cercle
Overview
2Corners5
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs Cercle Brugge

St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stayen in Sint- Truiden.