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St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
0 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
7/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion De Leunen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

St. Truiden35%
×Draw24%
Beerschot VA41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.52
Beerschot VA
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.83
Beerschot VA
2.80

allows per match

St. Truiden
0.50
Beerschot VA
1.20

finishing

St. Truiden+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
59%
St. Truiden or Beerschot VA
76%
Draw or Beerschot VA
65%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
17%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
78%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
45%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
20%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
81%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
49%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
46%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.83 + Beerschot VA defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Beerschot VA attack 2.80 + St. Truiden defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

St. Truiden scores more
35%
level
24%
Beerschot VA scores more
41%

Beerschot VA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs Beerschot VA

St. Truiden and Beerschot VA drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion De Leunen in Geel.