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Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
3/29/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Relegation Round - 1Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA38%
×Draw25%
St. Truiden37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.49
St. Truiden
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 139 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.36
St. Truiden
1.17

allows per match

Beerschot VA
1.74
St. Truiden
1.61

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
63%
Beerschot VA or St. Truiden
75%
Draw or St. Truiden
62%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
18%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
77%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
44%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
19%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
77%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
43%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
51%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + St. Truiden defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

St. Truiden attack 1.17 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
38%
level
25%
St. Truiden scores more
37%

Beerschot VA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden

St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Anvers.