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St. Pölten W vs Wacker Innsbruck W — Frauenliga 2019

St. Pölten W
St. Pölten W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
3/12/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 10Trainingsplatz NV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

St. Pölten W92%
×Draw6%
Wacker Innsbruck W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten W
4.23
Wacker Innsbruck W
0.67

St. Pölten W creates 531% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 41 away

creates per match

St. Pölten W
4.27
Wacker Innsbruck W
0.93

allows per match

St. Pölten W
0.41
Wacker Innsbruck W
4.20

finishing

St. Pölten W+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten W ↓

Wacker Innsbruck W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

St. Pölten W or draw
98%
St. Pölten W or Wacker Innsbruck W
94%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck W
8%

Winning margin

St. Pölten W wins by 2+
80%
Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

St. Pölten W 1+ goals
98%
St. Pölten W 2+ goals
91%
St. Pölten W 3+ goals
76%
Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
49%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
15%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)
97%
Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten W at home — creates 4.27, concedes 0.41 · 64 matches

Wacker Innsbruck W away — creates 0.93, concedes 4.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten W attack 4.27 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.23

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 0.93 + St. Pölten W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

St. Pölten W scores more
92%
level
6%
Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
2%

St. Pölten W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pölten W vs Wacker Innsbruck W

St. Pölten W beat Wacker Innsbruck W 2-0 in Frauenliga on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Trainingsplatz NV Arena in Sankt Pölten.