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St. Pölten W vs Valur W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

St. Pölten W
St. Pölten W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valur W
Valur W
10/18/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundNV ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

St. Pölten W38%
×Draw23%
Valur W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten W
1.61
Valur W
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

St. Pölten W
1.89
Valur W
1.00

allows per match

St. Pölten W
2.22
Valur W
1.33

finishing

St. Pölten W+0.00on par
Valur W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten W ↓

Valur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

St. Pölten W or draw
62%
St. Pölten W or Valur W
77%
Draw or Valur W
62%

Winning margin

St. Pölten W wins by 2+
19%
Valur W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

St. Pölten W 1+ goals
80%
St. Pölten W 2+ goals
48%
St. Pölten W 3+ goals
22%
Valur W 1+ goals
80%
Valur W 2+ goals
48%
Valur W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)
50%
Valur W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Valur W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten W attack 1.89 + Valur W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Valur W attack 1.00 + St. Pölten W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

St. Pölten W scores more
38%
level
23%
Valur W scores more
38%

St. Pölten W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pölten W vs Valur W

Valur W beat St. Pölten W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at NV ARENA in St. Pölten.