St. Pölten W 5–0 Neftçi Bakı: Result & Stats

St. Pölten W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Neftçi Bakı

9/4/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsTskaltubo Technical Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

St. Pölten W62%

×Draw19%

Neftçi Bakı19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pölten WExpected goals in this matchNeftçi Bakı

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.28

St. Pölten W

2.44

Neftçi Bakı

1.28

St. Pölten W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 3 away

1.89

creates per match

0.33

2.22

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

St. Pölten W

1.89

Neftçi Bakı

0.33

allows per match

St. Pölten W

2.22

Neftçi Bakı

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pölten W+0.00on par

Neftçi Bakı+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten W ↓

Neftçi Bakı →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

St. Pölten W or draw

81%

St. Pölten W or Neftçi Bakı

81%

Draw or Neftçi Bakı

38%

Winning margin

St. Pölten W wins by 2+

41%

Neftçi Bakı wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

St. Pölten W 1+ goals

91%

St. Pölten W 2+ goals

70%

St. Pölten W 3+ goals

43%

Neftçi Bakı 1+ goals

72%

Neftçi Bakı 2+ goals

37%

Neftçi Bakı 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)

77%

Neftçi Bakı (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Neftçi Bakı away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten W attack 1.89 + Neftçi Bakı defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Neftçi Bakı attack 0.33 + St. Pölten W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

St. Pölten W scores more

62%

level

19%

Neftçi Bakı scores more

19%

St. Pölten W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff