St. Pölten W 1–2 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

St. Pölten W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby W

K. Dubcová 83'

J. Blakstad 22'

C. Tandberg 20'

12/18/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

St. Pölten W54%

×Draw20%

Hammarby W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pölten WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.51

St. Pölten W

2.25

Hammarby W

1.51

St. Pölten W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 5 away

1.89

creates per match

0.80

2.22

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

St. Pölten W

1.89

Hammarby W

0.80

allows per match

St. Pölten W

2.22

Hammarby W

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pölten W+0.00on par

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

St. Pölten W or draw

74%

St. Pölten W or Hammarby W

80%

Draw or Hammarby W

46%

Winning margin

St. Pölten W wins by 2+

33%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Pölten W 1+ goals

89%

St. Pölten W 2+ goals

65%

St. Pölten W 3+ goals

39%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

78%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

44%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten W (draw refunded)

68%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten W attack 1.89 + Hammarby W defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hammarby W attack 0.80 + St. Pölten W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

St. Pölten W scores more

54%

level

20%

Hammarby W scores more

26%

St. Pölten W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "St. Pölten W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Nyström

Hammarby W · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

C. Tandberg↳ J. Andersson

22'

J. Blakstad↳ S. Holmberg

33'

M. Zver← R. Schumacher

45+1'

Jonna Andersson

61'

A. Miyagawa← A. Jøsendal

66'

Mateja Zver

66'

T. Krznarić← M. Mikolajová

66'

A. Glibo← M. Pekel

72'

E. Westin← J. Andersson

83'

K. Dubcová

90+1'

T. Sørbo← V. Hasund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St.Hammarby

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots19

2Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots19

2On Target5

4Off Target11

1Blocked3

6Inside Box15

1Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

301Total Passes557

194Accurate Passes457

64%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1