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St. Pölten II vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
FT
0 – 0
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
3/12/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 16NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

St. Pölten II64%
×Draw20%
Waidhofen / Thaya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten II
2.19
Waidhofen / Thaya
1.02

St. Pölten II creates 115% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

St. Pölten II
1.84
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

St. Pölten II
1.34
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw
83%
St. Pölten II or Waidhofen / Thaya
80%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
36%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+
40%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals
89%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
64%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
37%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
64%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
27%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
79%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.84 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.19

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + St. Pölten II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

St. Pölten II scores more
64%
level
20%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
17%

St. Pölten II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "St. Pölten II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pölten II vs Waidhofen / Thaya

St. Pölten II and Waidhofen / Thaya drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage in St. Pölten.