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St. Pölten II vs Scheiblingkirchen — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
FT
1 – 2
Scheiblingkirchen
Scheiblingkirchen
3/16/2024Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 17NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

St. Pölten II36%
×Draw24%
Scheiblingkirchen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten II
1.47
Scheiblingkirchen
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

creates per match

St. Pölten II
1.84
Scheiblingkirchen
1.74

allows per match

St. Pölten II
1.34
Scheiblingkirchen
1.10

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par
Scheiblingkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Scheiblingkirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw
61%
St. Pölten II or Scheiblingkirchen
76%
Draw or Scheiblingkirchen
64%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+
17%
Scheiblingkirchen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals
77%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
43%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
18%
Scheiblingkirchen 1+ goals
79%
Scheiblingkirchen 2+ goals
45%
Scheiblingkirchen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
48%
Scheiblingkirchen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Scheiblingkirchen away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.84 + Scheiblingkirchen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Scheiblingkirchen attack 1.74 + St. Pölten II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

St. Pölten II scores more
36%
level
24%
Scheiblingkirchen scores more
39%

Scheiblingkirchen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Scheiblingkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pölten II vs Scheiblingkirchen

Scheiblingkirchen beat St. Pölten II 2-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage in St. Pölten.