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St. Pölten II vs Krems — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
CANC
00:00
Krems
Krems
4/5/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 20Sportplatz Ober-Grafendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

St. Pölten II34%
×Draw24%
Krems42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten II
1.44
Krems
1.61

Krems creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

creates per match

St. Pölten II
1.84
Krems
1.88

allows per match

St. Pölten II
1.34
Krems
1.04

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw
58%
St. Pölten II or Krems
76%
Draw or Krems
66%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+
16%
Krems wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals
76%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
42%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
18%
Krems 1+ goals
80%
Krems 2+ goals
48%
Krems 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
45%
Krems (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Krems away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.84 + Krems defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.44

Krems attack 1.88 + St. Pölten II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Pölten II scores more
34%
level
24%
Krems scores more
42%

Krems at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Pölten II vs Krems — Match Preview

St. Pölten II face Krems on April 5, 2020 in this Landesliga - Niederosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Pölten II host Krems at Sportplatz Ober-Grafendorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.