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St. Pölten II vs Kottingbrunn — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
FT
1 – 3
Kottingbrunn
Kottingbrunn
9/2/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 5NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

St. Pölten II42%
×Draw25%
Kottingbrunn33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pölten II
1.56
Kottingbrunn
1.36

St. Pölten II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

St. Pölten II
1.84
Kottingbrunn
1.38

allows per match

St. Pölten II
1.34
Kottingbrunn
1.27

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par
Kottingbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Kottingbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw
67%
St. Pölten II or Kottingbrunn
75%
Draw or Kottingbrunn
58%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+
21%
Kottingbrunn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals
79%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
46%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
21%
Kottingbrunn 1+ goals
74%
Kottingbrunn 2+ goals
39%
Kottingbrunn 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
56%
Kottingbrunn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Kottingbrunn away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.84 + Kottingbrunn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kottingbrunn attack 1.38 + St. Pölten II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Pölten II scores more
42%
level
25%
Kottingbrunn scores more
33%

St. Pölten II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Pölten II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pölten II vs Kottingbrunn

Kottingbrunn beat St. Pölten II 3-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at NÖFV-Verbandssportanlage in St. Pölten.