St. Pölten II 1–1 Haitzendorf: Result & Stats

St. Pölten II

FT

1 – 1

Haitzendorf

4/6/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 20Sportplatz Ober-Grafendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Pölten II50%

×Draw23%

Haitzendorf27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pölten IIExpected goals in this matchHaitzendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.27

St. Pölten II

1.83

Haitzendorf

1.27

St. Pölten II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 29 away

1.84

creates per match

1.21

1.34

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

St. Pölten II

1.84

Haitzendorf

1.21

allows per match

St. Pölten II

1.34

Haitzendorf

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Haitzendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw

73%

St. Pölten II or Haitzendorf

77%

Draw or Haitzendorf

50%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+

28%

Haitzendorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals

84%

St. Pölten II 2+ goals

54%

St. Pölten II 3+ goals

28%

Haitzendorf 1+ goals

72%

Haitzendorf 2+ goals

36%

Haitzendorf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)

65%

Haitzendorf (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Haitzendorf away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.84 + Haitzendorf defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.83

Haitzendorf attack 1.21 + St. Pölten II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Pölten II scores more

50%

level

23%

Haitzendorf scores more

27%

St. Pölten II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Pölten II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff