St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0–2 Quevilly: Result & Stats

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Quevilly

I. Tshipamba 87', 82'

12/22/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Jean Léveillé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

St-Philbert Gd Lieu23%

×Draw25%

Quevilly53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St-Philbert Gd LieuExpected goals in this matchQuevilly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.63

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

0.98

Quevilly

1.63

Quevilly creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.14

creates per match

1.82

1.43

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1.14

Quevilly

1.82

allows per match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1.43

Quevilly

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St-Philbert Gd Lieu+0.00on par

Quevilly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St-Philbert Gd Lieu ↓

Quevilly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

St-Philbert Gd Lieu or draw

47%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu or Quevilly

75%

Draw or Quevilly

77%

Winning margin

St-Philbert Gd Lieu wins by 2+

8%

Quevilly wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 1+ goals

62%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2+ goals

26%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 3+ goals

8%

Quevilly 1+ goals

80%

Quevilly 2+ goals

48%

Quevilly 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

St-Philbert Gd Lieu (draw refunded)

30%

Quevilly (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St-Philbert Gd Lieu at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Quevilly away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu attack 1.14 + Quevilly defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Quevilly attack 1.82 + St-Philbert Gd Lieu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St-Philbert Gd Lieu scores more

23%

level

25%

Quevilly scores more

53%

Quevilly at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Tshipamba

Quevilly · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

Julien Olmos

54'

Nicolas Payot

62'

J. Leborgne← N. Bouekou

68'

S. Ngampika← D. Blanquet

68'

F. Merhawi Guillou← J. Olmos

71'

N. Adekalom← K. Sylva

71'

Y. Jarju← Y. Fortuné

73'

Achille Robin

77'

N. Chibani← B. Owusu

77'

L. Pirringuel← B. Dali-Amar

82'

I. Tshipamba↳ L. Pirringuel

87'

I. Tshipamba↳ N. Adekalom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

St-PhilbertQuevilly

Overview

52%Possession48%

4Total Shots19

0Corners6

19Fouls5

Shots

4Total Shots19

0On Target7

4Off Target8

0Blocked4

1Inside Box10

3Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

368Total Passes332

283Accurate Passes246

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls5

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3