St-Philbert Gd Lieu 1–3 Laval: Result & Stats

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Laval

A. Zainek 53'

T. Robinet 62'

U. Mamadou-Simbakoli 43'

E. Taha 39'

2/13/2021

Coupe de France · 7th RoundComplexe Sportif des Chevrets 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

St-Philbert Gd Lieu24%

×Draw25%

Laval52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St-Philbert Gd LieuExpected goals in this matchLaval

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.65

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1.04

Laval

1.65

Laval creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.14

creates per match

1.88

1.43

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1.14

Laval

1.88

allows per match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu

1.43

Laval

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St-Philbert Gd Lieu+0.00on par

Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St-Philbert Gd Lieu ↓

Laval →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

St-Philbert Gd Lieu or draw

48%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu or Laval

75%

Draw or Laval

76%

Winning margin

St-Philbert Gd Lieu wins by 2+

Laval wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 1+ goals

65%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2+ goals

28%

St-Philbert Gd Lieu 3+ goals

Laval 1+ goals

81%

Laval 2+ goals

49%

Laval 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

St-Philbert Gd Lieu (draw refunded)

32%

Laval (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

St-Philbert Gd Lieu at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Laval away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

St-Philbert Gd Lieu attack 1.14 + Laval defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Laval attack 1.88 + St-Philbert Gd Lieu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

St-Philbert Gd Lieu scores more

24%

level

25%

Laval scores more

52%

Laval at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

43'

53'

62'

70'

74'

81'

82'

88'

88'

Q. Chapela← F. Guillou

88'

D. Caddy← S. NZuzi

St-Philbert

Laval

⚽

▼

Robinet

▼

NZuzi

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Casanova

70'▲T. Cetti←▼F. Deroost

81'▲R. Bugeau←▼A. Zainek

88'▲H. Hammou←▼L. Denis

88'▲Q. Chapela←▼F. Guillou

St-Philbert Gd Lieu substitutes

CettiBugeauHammouChapelaChony

Manager: O. Frapolli

74'▲A. Dembélé←▼E. Taha

82'▲A. Meité←▼T. Robinet

88'▲D. Caddy←▼S. NZuzi

Laval substitutes

DembéléMeitéCaddySauvageCros