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St. Peter vs Zwettl — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Peter
St. Peter
FT
4 – 2
Zwettl
Zwettl
11/4/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Sportplatz St. Peter/Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

St. Peter48%
×Draw23%
Zwettl29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Peter
1.79
Zwettl
1.36

St. Peter creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 85 away

creates per match

St. Peter
1.86
Zwettl
1.21

allows per match

St. Peter
1.52
Zwettl
1.73

finishing

St. Peter+0.00on par
Zwettl+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Peter ↓

Zwettl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

St. Peter or draw
71%
St. Peter or Zwettl
77%
Draw or Zwettl
52%

Winning margin

St. Peter wins by 2+
26%
Zwettl wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

St. Peter 1+ goals
83%
St. Peter 2+ goals
53%
St. Peter 3+ goals
26%
Zwettl 1+ goals
74%
Zwettl 2+ goals
39%
Zwettl 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

St. Peter (draw refunded)
62%
Zwettl (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Peter at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Zwettl away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Peter attack 1.86 + Zwettl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zwettl attack 1.21 + St. Peter defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

St. Peter scores more
48%
level
23%
Zwettl scores more
29%

St. Peter at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "St. Peter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Peter vs Zwettl

St. Peter beat Zwettl 4-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Peter/Au in St. Peter/Au.