St. Peter 2–0 USC Rohrbach: Result & Stats

St. Peter

FT

2 – 0

USC Rohrbach

8/15/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 1Sportplatz St. Peter/Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

St. Peter52%

×Draw22%

USC Rohrbach26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. PeterExpected goals in this matchUSC Rohrbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.29

St. Peter

1.90

USC Rohrbach

1.29

St. Peter creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 71 away

1.86

creates per match

1.06

1.52

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

St. Peter

1.86

USC Rohrbach

1.06

allows per match

St. Peter

1.52

USC Rohrbach

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Peter+0.00on par

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Peter ↓

USC Rohrbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

St. Peter or draw

74%

St. Peter or USC Rohrbach

78%

Draw or USC Rohrbach

48%

Winning margin

St. Peter wins by 2+

29%

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

St. Peter 1+ goals

85%

St. Peter 2+ goals

56%

St. Peter 3+ goals

29%

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals

72%

USC Rohrbach 2+ goals

37%

USC Rohrbach 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

St. Peter (draw refunded)

66%

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Peter at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Peter attack 1.86 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + St. Peter defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Peter scores more

52%

level

22%

USC Rohrbach scores more

26%

St. Peter at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St. Peter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff