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St. Peter vs St. Pölten II — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

St. Peter
St. Peter
CANC
15:00
St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
3/1/2025Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 16Sportplatz St. Peter/Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

St. Peter44%
×Draw23%
St. Pölten II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Peter
1.83
St. Pölten II
1.58

St. Peter creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 85 away

creates per match

St. Peter
1.86
St. Pölten II
1.65

allows per match

St. Peter
1.52
St. Pölten II
1.79

finishing

St. Peter+0.00on par
St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Peter ↓

St. Pölten II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Peter or draw
66%
St. Peter or St. Pölten II
77%
Draw or St. Pölten II
56%

Winning margin

St. Peter wins by 2+
24%
St. Pölten II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

St. Peter 1+ goals
84%
St. Peter 2+ goals
54%
St. Peter 3+ goals
28%
St. Pölten II 1+ goals
79%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
47%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

St. Peter (draw refunded)
57%
St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Peter at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Peter attack 1.86 + St. Pölten II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

St. Pölten II attack 1.65 + St. Peter defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. Peter scores more
44%
level
23%
St. Pölten II scores more
34%

St. Peter at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St. Peter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Peter vs St. Pölten II — Match Preview

St. Peter face St. Pölten II on March 1, 2025 in this Landesliga - Niederosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Peter host St. Pölten II at Sportplatz St. Peter/Au.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.