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St. Pauli U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
CANC
11:00
Viktoria Berlin U19
Viktoria Berlin U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

St. Pauli U1953%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Berlin U1926%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli U19
2.20
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.51

St. Pauli U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 41 away

creates per match

St. Pauli U19
1.91
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.59

allows per match

St. Pauli U19
1.43
Viktoria Berlin U19
2.49

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw
74%
St. Pauli U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19
79%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19
47%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
32%
Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
89%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
64%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
37%
Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals
78%
Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals
44%
Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.20

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more
53%
level
21%
Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more
26%

St. Pauli U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Pauli U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — Match Preview

St. Pauli U19 face Viktoria Berlin U19 on April 10, 2021 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Pauli U19 host Viktoria Berlin U19 at Sportanlage Königskinderweg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.