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St. Pauli U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
E. Eroglu 60'
A. Schneider 79'
Y. Zöllner 29'
8/10/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

St. Pauli U1955%
×Draw20%
Holstein Kiel U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli U19
2.31
Holstein Kiel U19
1.52

St. Pauli U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

creates per match

St. Pauli U19
1.91
Holstein Kiel U19
1.61

allows per match

St. Pauli U19
1.43
Holstein Kiel U19
2.70

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw
75%
St. Pauli U19 or Holstein Kiel U19
80%
Draw or Holstein Kiel U19
45%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
34%
Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
90%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
67%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
40%
Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
45%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.31

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
25%

St. Pauli U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Y. Zöllner
60'
E. Eroglu
79'
A. Schneider
St.
Holstein
N. Schick
Manager: N. Schick
J. Kaps
Manager: J. Kaps

St. Pauli U19 1 – 2 Holstein Kiel U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat St. Pauli U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2025.

Goals: Y. Zöllner (29'), E. Eroglu (60'), A. Schneider (79').

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.