St. Pauli U19 3–0 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

St. Pauli U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

B. Winter 68', 65', 35'

12/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Brummerskamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

St. Pauli U1956%

×Draw20%

Holstein Kiel U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.50

St. Pauli U19

2.32

Holstein Kiel U19

1.50

St. Pauli U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

1.91

creates per match

1.58

1.43

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

75%

St. Pauli U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

80%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

44%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

35%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

90%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

67%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

40%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

44%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.32

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

25%

St. Pauli U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

B. Winter

61'

M. Marie← S. Škrijelj

61'

E. Calikoglu← J. de Chatrie Doegl

65'

B. Winter

68'

B. Winter

69'

E. Ampofo← E. da Silva Moreira

69'

I. Baraze← L. Freese

69'

S. Rinal← B. Winter

76'

N. Kretschmar← M. Dühring

79'

P. Kruse← M. Sinanović

85'

A. Hrnjicic← O. Witt

85'

L. Steffen← M. Zimmer

St.

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

Winter

Manager: B. Hoose

61'▲M. Marie←▼S. Škrijelj

69'▲E. Ampofo←▼E. da Silva Moreira

69'▲I. Baraze←▼L. Freese

69'▲S. Rinal←▼B. Winter

76'▲N. Kretschmar←▼M. Dühring

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

MarieAmpofoBarazeRinalKretschmarJendrzejJovanović

Manager: F. Raue

61'▲E. Calikoglu←▼J. de Chatrie Doegl

79'▲P. Kruse←▼M. Sinanović

85'▲A. Hrnjicic←▼O. Witt

85'▲L. Steffen←▼M. Zimmer

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

CalikogluKruseHrnjicicSteffenKeskinMeßfeldtJansa

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2022.

Goals: B. Winter (35', 65', 68').

The match was played at Brummerskamp in Hamburg.

St. Pauli U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19