St. Pauli U19 1–1 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

St. Pauli U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

I. Baraze 45'

G. Didoss 20'

8/27/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 3Sportanlage Königskinderweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

St. Pauli U1939%

×Draw22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pauli U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.76

St. Pauli U19

1.77

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

2.09

1.43

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

St. Pauli U19

1.91

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

St. Pauli U19

1.43

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw

61%

St. Pauli U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

78%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

61%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

83%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

53%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

26%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

83%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.91 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more

39%

level

22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

39%

St. Pauli U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Didoss

45'

I. Baraze

62'

A. Soliman← J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

78'

J. Windsor← H. Muqaj

78'

P. Behrend← G. Didoss

82'

E. Schiano← E. Ampofo

90'

O. Wagner← M. Efe Aktürk

90+1'

L. Zdep← E. Akova

St.

Hertha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: B. Hoose

82'▲E. Schiano←▼E. Ampofo

90'▲O. Wagner←▼M. Efe Aktürk

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

SchianoWagnerBlechschmidtHansowGrambergJahrausSeibt

Manager: M. Siebert

62'▲A. Soliman←▼J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

78'▲J. Windsor←▼H. Muqaj

78'▲P. Behrend←▼G. Didoss

90+1'▲L. Zdep←▼E. Akova

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanWindsorBehrendZdepKarikaHartlMillgramm