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St. Pauli II vs SV Drochtersen/Assel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

St. Pauli II
St. Pauli II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
SV Drochtersen/Assel
SV Drochtersen/Assel
H. Sabah 47'
N. Goguadze 5'
M. Nagel 84'
A. A. Hamid 68', 49'
H. Hyseni 63'
2/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

St. Pauli II27%
×Draw17%
SV Drochtersen/Assel56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli II
2.54
SV Drochtersen/Assel
3.58

SV Drochtersen/Assel creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

St. Pauli II
3.88
SV Drochtersen/Assel
5.40

allows per match

St. Pauli II
1.75
SV Drochtersen/Assel
1.20

finishing

St. Pauli II+0.00on par
SV Drochtersen/Assel+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli II ↓

SV Drochtersen/Assel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

St. Pauli II or draw
44%
St. Pauli II or SV Drochtersen/Assel
83%
Draw or SV Drochtersen/Assel
73%

Winning margin

St. Pauli II wins by 2+
15%
SV Drochtersen/Assel wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

St. Pauli II 1+ goals
92%
St. Pauli II 2+ goals
72%
St. Pauli II 3+ goals
46%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 1+ goals
97%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 2+ goals
86%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli II (draw refunded)
33%
SV Drochtersen/Assel (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli II at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

SV Drochtersen/Assel away — creates 5.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli II attack 3.88 + SV Drochtersen/Assel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.54

SV Drochtersen/Assel attack 5.40 + St. Pauli II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Pauli II scores more
27%
level
17%
SV Drochtersen/Assel scores more
56%

SV Drochtersen/Assel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SV Drochtersen/Assel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Goguadze
47'
H. Sabah
49'
A. A. Hamid
63'
H. Hyseni
68'
A. A. Hamid
84'
M. Nagel
St.
SV
B. Hoose
Manager: B. Hoose
O. Ioannou
Manager: O. Ioannou

Friendlies Clubs: St. Pauli II 2–4 SV Drochtersen/Assel

SV Drochtersen/Assel beat St. Pauli II 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 22, 2026.

Goals: N. Goguadze (5'), H. Sabah (47'), A. A. Hamid (49', 68'), H. Hyseni (63'), M. Nagel (84').