St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Waterford: Result & Stats

St Patrick's Athl.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Waterford

M. Melia 40'

R. Burke 45'

10/24/2025

Premier Division · Round 35Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.59%

×Draw22%

Waterford19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Patrick's Athl.Expected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.97

St Patrick's Athl.

1.92

Waterford

0.97

St Patrick's Athl. creates 98% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.83

creates per match

1.31

0.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.

1.83

Waterford

1.31

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.

0.63

Waterford

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par

Waterford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw

81%

St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford

78%

Draw or Waterford

41%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

35%

Waterford wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

85%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

57%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

30%

Waterford 1+ goals

62%

Waterford 2+ goals

25%

Waterford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

76%

Waterford (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Waterford away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.83 + Waterford defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Waterford attack 1.31 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

59%

level

22%

Waterford scores more

19%

St Patrick's Athl. at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. McMullan

Waterford · G

8.9

Match Events

33'

Navajo Bakboord

39'

Tom Grivosti

40'

M. Melia↳ J. McClelland

45'

R. Burke↳ C. Noonan

59'

J. Garrick← S. Power

64'

M. Smith← N. Bakboord

64'

K. White← J. Dempsey

70'

D. McMenamy← S. Glenfield

71'

R. Palmer← B. Baggley

71'

J. Mulraney← C. Forrester

73'

Darragh Leahy

82'

Matthew Smith

82'

A. Keena← K. Leavy

82'

T. Coyle← T. Lonergan

85'

Kacper Radkowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StWaterford

Overview

66%Possession34%

25Total Shots13

2Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots13

10On Target5

8Off Target4

7Blocked4

14Inside Box8

11Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

556Total Passes273

483Accurate Passes190

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3