St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Waterford: Result & Stats

St Patrick's Athl.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Waterford

B. Kavanagh 65'

M. Asamoah 13'

4/19/2024

Premier Division · Round 11Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.57%

×Draw24%

Waterford20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Patrick's Athl.Expected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.91

St Patrick's Athl.

1.74

Waterford

0.91

St Patrick's Athl. creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

0.89

0.92

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.

1.40

Waterford

0.89

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.

0.92

Waterford

2.08

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.-0.40scores less

Waterford-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw

80%

St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford

76%

Draw or Waterford

43%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

32%

Waterford wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

82%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

52%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

25%

Waterford 1+ goals

60%

Waterford 2+ goals

23%

Waterford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

74%

Waterford (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.08 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.40 + Waterford defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.74

Waterford attack 0.89 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

57%

level

24%

Waterford scores more

20%

St Patrick's Athl. at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

H. Macadam

Waterford · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

29'

37'

38'

41'

62'

R. Keating← A. Bolger

62'

C. Forrester← K. Leavy

63'

J. Mulraney← A. Nolan

65'

B. Kavanagh

71'

C. Pattisson← M. Asamoah

73'

Ben McCormack

77'

R. Akachukwu← B. McCormack

78'

R. Palmer← M. Melia

90+5'

Christopher Forrester

90+1'

D. McMenamy← C. Parsons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StWaterford

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots9

5Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target6

6Blocked1

5Inside Box8

8Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

480Total Passes308

370Accurate Passes198

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1