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St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City — Premier Division 2026

St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
J. Lennon 90'
Z. Elbouzedi 89'
M. Melia 14'
S. Maguire 78' (pen)
C. Lyons 56'
5/16/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 16Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.62%
×Draw23%
Cork City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Cork City
0.77

St Patrick's Athl. creates 132% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 60 away

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.
1.51
Cork City
0.73

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Cork City
2.07

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw
84%
St Patrick's Athl. or Cork City
77%
Draw or Cork City
38%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
36%
Cork City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
83%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
53%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
26%
Cork City 1+ goals
54%
Cork City 2+ goals
18%
Cork City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
80%
Cork City (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.82 · 126 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.51 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Cork City attack 0.73 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more
62%
level
23%
Cork City scores more
16%

St Patrick's Athl. at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Z. ElbouzediSt Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl. · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
Barry Baggley
14'
M. Melia↳ B. Baggley
29'
Jake Mulraney
36'
B. Kavanagh← K. Leavy
38'
Joshua Fitzpatrick
56'
C. Lyons↳ E. McLaughlin
58'
G. Bolger← J. Fitzpatrick
69'
T. Grivosti← J. Redmond
69'
M. Mbeng← H. Nevin
69'
S. Maguire← E. McLaughlin
70'
Z. Elbouzedi← A. Keena
77'
S. Power← J. Mulraney
78'
J. McClelland← B. Baggley
78'
S. MaguirePenalty
79'
Greg Bolger
79'
Seani Maguire
89'
Z. Elbouzedi↳ S. Power
90+5'
Matthew Kiernan
90'
J. Lennon↳ Z. Elbouzedi

Possession

52%St

Shots

15St

Pass accuracy

50%St

Statistics

StCork
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots10
8Corners3
14Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots10
6On Target3
5Off Target4
4Blocked3
10Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
389Total Passes374
314Accurate Passes298
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City

St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 3-2 in Premier Division on May 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Melia (14'), C. Lyons (56'), S. Maguire (78' pen), Z. Elbouzedi (89'), J. Lennon (90').

St Patrick's Athl. controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Richmond Park in Dublin.