ST Mirren 2–1 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats | League Cup

ST Mirren

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ayr Utd

K. Phillips 38', 16'

K. Holt 65'

7/27/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 5The SMISA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ST Mirren48%

×Draw21%

Ayr Utd31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST MirrenExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.67

ST Mirren

2.13

Ayr Utd

1.67

ST Mirren creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.86

creates per match

2.20

1.14

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

ST Mirren

2.86

Ayr Utd

2.20

allows per match

ST Mirren

1.14

Ayr Utd

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

Ayr Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw

69%

ST Mirren or Ayr Utd

79%

Draw or Ayr Utd

52%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+

28%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals

88%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

63%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

35%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

81%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

50%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

61%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 2.86 + Ayr Utd defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ST Mirren scores more

48%

level

21%

Ayr Utd scores more

31%

ST Mirren at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Phillips↳ R. Idowu

38'

K. Phillips↳ R. Idowu

41'

Ethan Walker

42'

Richard King

46'

G. Oakley← S. Want

46'

J. Bonnar← M. Rus

60'

D. Thomas← J. Murphy

65'

K. Holt↳ D. Thomas

67'

O. Smyth← F. Taylor

67'

C. McMenamin← R. Idowu

67'

J. Ayunga← M. Mandron

81'

A. Iacovitti← R. King

87'

Nicholas McAllister

89'

K. Ure← E. Walker

Statistics

STAyr

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0