St. Michael Bleiburg 2–1 Wolfsberg: Result & Stats

St. Michael Bleiburg

FT

2 – 1

Wolfsberg

3/30/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 18Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg34%

×Draw21%

Wolfsberg45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Michael BleiburgExpected goals in this matchWolfsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.09

St. Michael Bleiburg

1.81

Wolfsberg

2.09

Wolfsberg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

1.39

creates per match

1.77

2.42

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg

1.39

Wolfsberg

1.77

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg

2.42

Wolfsberg

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Wolfsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw

55%

St. Michael Bleiburg or Wolfsberg

79%

Draw or Wolfsberg

66%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+

17%

Wolfsberg wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals

84%

St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals

54%

St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals

27%

Wolfsberg 1+ goals

88%

Wolfsberg 2+ goals

62%

Wolfsberg 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)

43%

Wolfsberg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Wolfsberg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wolfsberg attack 1.77 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more

34%

level

21%

Wolfsberg scores more

45%

Wolfsberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolfsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Michael Bleiburg 2–1 Wolfsberg

St. Michael Bleiburg beat Wolfsberg 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark St. Michael in Sankt Michael ob Bleiburg.

St. Michael Bleiburg vs Wolfsberg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Michael Bleiburg 2–1 Wolfsberg