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St. Michael Bleiburg vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
FT
1 – 0
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
9/22/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 9Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg29%
×Draw22%
St. Jakob Rosental49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.47
St. Jakob Rosental
1.96

St. Jakob Rosental creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 76 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
51%
St. Michael Bleiburg or St. Jakob Rosental
78%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
71%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
13%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
77%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
43%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
18%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
86%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
58%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
37%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
29%
level
22%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
49%

St. Jakob Rosental at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Michael Bleiburg 1 – 0 St. Jakob Rosental

St. Michael Bleiburg beat St. Jakob Rosental 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark St. Michael in Sankt Michael ob Bleiburg.