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St. Jakob Rosental vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
FT
2 – 2
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
10/7/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 10Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

St. Jakob Rosental50%
×Draw22%
St. Michael Bleiburg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Jakob Rosental
1.94
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.42

St. Jakob Rosental creates 37% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 31 away

creates per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.86
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

St. Jakob Rosental
1.67
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Jakob Rosental ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

St. Jakob Rosental or draw
72%
St. Jakob Rosental or St. Michael Bleiburg
78%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
50%

Winning margin

St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
28%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
86%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
58%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
30%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
76%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
41%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
64%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Jakob Rosental at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.86 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Jakob Rosental scores more
50%
level
22%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
28%

St. Jakob Rosental at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Jakob Rosental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Jakob Rosental vs St. Michael Bleiburg

St. Jakob Rosental and St. Michael Bleiburg drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Jakob im Rosental in St. Jakob im Rosental.