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St. Michael Bleiburg vs Spittal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
CANC
21:00
Spittal
Spittal
5/3/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg33%
×Draw22%
Spittal46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.67
Spittal
2.00

Spittal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
Spittal
1.59

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
Spittal
1.94

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
Spittal+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Spittal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
54%
St. Michael Bleiburg or Spittal
78%
Draw or Spittal
67%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
16%
Spittal wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
81%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
50%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
23%
Spittal 1+ goals
86%
Spittal 2+ goals
59%
Spittal 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
42%
Spittal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Spittal away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Spittal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spittal attack 1.59 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
33%
level
22%
Spittal scores more
46%

Spittal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: St. Michael Bleiburg host Spittal

May 3, 2020: St. Michael Bleiburg take on Spittal in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

St. Michael Bleiburg host Spittal at Sportpark St. Michael.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.