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St. Michael Bleiburg vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
FT
2 – 0
Gmünd
Gmünd
10/20/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 13Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg35%
×Draw23%
Gmünd42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.59
Gmünd
1.77

Gmünd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
58%
St. Michael Bleiburg or Gmünd
77%
Draw or Gmünd
65%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
17%
Gmünd wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
80%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
47%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
21%
Gmünd 1+ goals
83%
Gmünd 2+ goals
53%
Gmünd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
45%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gmünd attack 1.13 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
35%
level
23%
Gmünd scores more
42%

Gmünd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: St. Michael Bleiburg 2–0 Gmünd

St. Michael Bleiburg beat Gmünd 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark St. Michael in Sankt Michael ob Bleiburg.