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Gmünd vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
FT
2 – 0
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
10/16/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 14Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gmünd55%
×Draw23%
St. Michael Bleiburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.86
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.10

Gmünd creates 69% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
78%
Gmünd or St. Michael Bleiburg
77%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
45%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
31%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
84%
Gmünd 2+ goals
55%
Gmünd 3+ goals
28%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
67%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
30%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
71%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.86

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gmünd scores more
55%
level
23%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
22%

Gmünd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gmünd vs St. Michael Bleiburg

Gmünd beat St. Michael Bleiburg 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd in Gmünd.