St. Michael Bleiburg 2–5 ASK Klagenfurt

St. Michael Bleiburg

FT

2 – 5

ASK Klagenfurt

3/27/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 20Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg26%

×Draw21%

ASK Klagenfurt53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Michael BleiburgExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.18

St. Michael Bleiburg

1.50

ASK Klagenfurt

2.18

ASK Klagenfurt creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.39

creates per match

1.94

2.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg

1.39

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg

2.42

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw

47%

St. Michael Bleiburg or ASK Klagenfurt

79%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

74%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+

12%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals

78%

St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals

44%

St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals

19%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

89%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

64%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)

33%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more

26%

level

21%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

53%

ASK Klagenfurt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff