St. Martin i.M. 2–1 Wohnbau Dietach: Result & Stats

St. Martin i.M.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wohnbau Dietach

3/15/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17Fresh Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

St. Martin i.M.36%

×Draw22%

Wohnbau Dietach42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Martin i.M.Expected goals in this matchWohnbau Dietach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.87

St. Martin i.M.

1.72

Wohnbau Dietach

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

2.33

creates per match

2.16

1.58

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

St. Martin i.M.

2.33

Wohnbau Dietach

2.16

allows per match

St. Martin i.M.

1.58

Wohnbau Dietach

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Martin i.M.+0.00on par

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Martin i.M. ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

St. Martin i.M. or draw

58%

St. Martin i.M. or Wohnbau Dietach

78%

Draw or Wohnbau Dietach

64%

Winning margin

St. Martin i.M. wins by 2+

18%

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

St. Martin i.M. 1+ goals

82%

St. Martin i.M. 2+ goals

51%

St. Martin i.M. 3+ goals

25%

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

85%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

56%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

St. Martin i.M. (draw refunded)

46%

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Martin i.M. at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 89 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Martin i.M. attack 2.33 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + St. Martin i.M. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Martin i.M. scores more

36%

level

22%

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

42%

Wohnbau Dietach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff