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St. Martin i.M. vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

St. Martin i.M.
St. Martin i.M.
CANC
15:00
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
6/12/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 30Aubachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Martin i.M.56%
×Draw21%
Union St. Florian23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Martin i.M.
2.17
Union St. Florian
1.34

St. Martin i.M. creates 62% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

St. Martin i.M.
2.33
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

St. Martin i.M.
1.58
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

St. Martin i.M.+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Martin i.M. ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Martin i.M. or draw
77%
St. Martin i.M. or Union St. Florian
79%
Draw or Union St. Florian
44%

Winning margin

St. Martin i.M. wins by 2+
34%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Martin i.M. 1+ goals
89%
St. Martin i.M. 2+ goals
64%
St. Martin i.M. 3+ goals
36%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
74%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
39%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

St. Martin i.M. (draw refunded)
71%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Martin i.M. at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 89 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Martin i.M. attack 2.33 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + St. Martin i.M. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Martin i.M. scores more
56%
level
21%
Union St. Florian scores more
23%

St. Martin i.M. at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "St. Martin i.M. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Martin i.M. vs Union St. Florian — Match Preview

St. Martin i.M. face Union St. Florian on June 12, 2021 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Martin i.M. host Union St. Florian at Aubachstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.